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. From 19 to 22 June 2013, intense rainfall andconcurrent snowmelt led to devastating floods in the Canadian Rockies,foothills and downstream areas of southern Alberta and southeastern BritishColumbia, Canada. Such an event is typical of late-spring floods in cold-region mountain headwater, combining intense precipitation with rapidmelting of late-lying snowpack, and represents a challenge for hydrologicalforecasting systems. This study investigated the factors governing theability to predict such an event. Three sources of uncertainty, other thanthe hydrological model processes and parameters, were considered: (i) theresolution of the atmospheric forcings, (ii) the snow and soil moisture initial conditions (ICs) and (iii) the representation of the soil texture.The Global Environmental Multiscale hydrological modeling platform(GEM-Hydro), running at a 1 km grid spacing, was used to simulatehydrometeorological conditions in the main headwater basins of southernAlberta during this event. The GEM atmospheric model and the CanadianPrecipitation Analysis (CaPA) system were combined to generate atmosphericforcing at 10, 2.5 and 1 km over southern Alberta. Gridded estimates of snowwater equivalent (SWE) from the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) were usedto replace the model SWE at peak snow accumulation and generate alternativesnow and soil moisture ICs before the event. Two global soil texturedatasets were also used. Overall 12 simulations of the flooding eventwere carried out. Results show that the resolution of the atmosphericforcing affected primarily the flood volume and peak flow in all riverbasins due to a more accurate estimation of intensity and total amount ofprecipitation during the flooding event provided by CaPA analysis atconvection-permitting scales (2.5 and 1 km). Basin-averaged snowmelt alsochanged with the resolution due to changes in near-surface wind andresulting turbulent fluxes contributing to snowmelt. Snow ICs were the mainsources of uncertainty for half of the headwater basins. Finally, the soiltexture had less impact and only affected peak flow magnitude and timing forsome stations. These results highlight the need to combine atmosphericforcing at convection-permitting scales with high-quality snow ICs to provideaccurate streamflow predictions during late-spring floods in cold-region mountain river basins. The predictive improvement by inclusion of high-elevation weather stations in the precipitation analysis and the need foraccurate mountain snow information suggest the necessity of integratedobservation and prediction systems for forecasting extreme events inmountain river basins.

Assessing the factors governing the ability to predict late-spring flooding in cold-region mountain basins