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. Climate change and land cover changes are influencing thehydrological regime of rivers worldwide. In Flanders (Belgium), theintensification of the hydrological cycle caused by climate change isprojected to cause more flooding in winters, and land use and land cover changescould amplify these effects by, for example, making runoff on pavedsurfaces faster. The relative importance of both drivers, however, is stilluncertain, and interaction effects between both drivers are not yet wellunderstood. In order to better understand the hydrological impact of climate variationsand land cover changes, including their interaction effects, we fitted astatistical model for historical data over 3 decades for 29 catchments inFlanders. The model is able to explain 60 % of the changes in river peakflows over time. It was found that catchment characteristics explain up to18 % of changes in river peak flows, 6 % of changes in climate variability and 8 % of landcover changes. Steep catchments and catchments with a high proportionof loamic soils are subject to higher peak flows, and an increase in urbanarea of 1 % might cause increases in river peak flows up to 5 %.Interactions between catchment characteristics, climate variations and landcover changes explain up to 32 % of the peak-flow changes, where flatcatchments with a low loamic soil content are more sensitive to land coverchanges with respect to peak-flow anomalies. This shows the importance ofincluding such interaction terms in data-based attribution studies.

Climate or land cover variations: what is driving observed changes in river peak flows? A data-based attribution study