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. Many studies have shown that downstream flood regimes have beensignificantly altered by upstream reservoir operation. Reservoir effects onthe downstream flow regime are normally performed by comparing the pre-damand post-dam frequencies of certain streamflow indicators, such as floodsand droughts. In this study, a rainfall–reservoir composite index (RRCI) isdeveloped to precisely quantify reservoir impacts on downstream floodfrequency under a framework of a covariate-based nonstationary floodfrequency analysis using the Bayesian inference method. The RRCI is derivedfrom a combination of both a reservoir index (RI) for measuring the effectsof reservoir storage capacity and a rainfall index. More precisely, theOR joint (the type of possible joint events based on the OR operator) exceedance probability (OR-JEP) of certain scheduling-relatedvariables selected out of five variables that describe the multidayantecedent rainfall input (MARI) is used to measure the effects ofantecedent rainfall on reservoir operation. Then, the RI-dependent orRRCI-dependent distribution parameters and five distributions, the gamma,Weibull, lognormal, Gumbel, and generalized extreme value, are used toanalyze the annual maximum daily flow (AMDF) of the Ankang, Huangjiagang,and Huangzhuang gauging stations of the Han River, China. A phenomenonis observed in which although most of the floods that peak downstream ofreservoirs have been reduced in magnitude by upstream reservoirs, somerelatively large flood events have still occurred, such as at theHuangzhuang station in 1983. The results of nonstationary flood frequencyanalysis show that, in comparison to the RI, the RRCI that combines both theRI and the OR-JEP resulted in a much better explanation for such phenomena offlood occurrences downstream of reservoirs. A Bayesian inference of the100-year return level of the AMDF shows that the optimal RRCI-dependentdistribution, compared to the RI-dependent one, results in relativelysmaller estimated values. However, exceptions exist due to some lowOR-JEP values. In addition, it provides a smaller uncertainty range. Thisstudy highlights the necessity of including antecedent rainfall effects, inaddition to the effects of reservoir storage capacity, on reservoiroperation to assess the reservoir effects on downstream flood frequency.This analysis can provide a more comprehensive approach for downstream floodrisk management under the impacts of reservoirs.

hydrology and earth system sciences

Assessing the impacts of reservoirs on downstream flood frequency by coupling the effect of scheduling-related multivariate rainfall with an indicator of reservoir effects