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. To quantify climate change impact and difference onbasin-scale river runoff under the limiting global warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C, this study examined four river basinscovering a wide hydroclimatic setting. We analyzed projected climate changein four basins, quantified climate change impact on annual and seasonalrunoff based on the Soil Water Assessment Tool, and estimated theuncertainty constrained by the global circulation model (GCM) structureand the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). All statistics for thetwo river basins (the Shiyang River, SYR, and the Chaobai River, CBR)located in northern China indicated generally warmer and wetter conditions,whereas the two river basins (the Huaihe River, HHR, and the Fujiang River, FJR) located in southern China projected less warming and wereinconsistent regarding annual precipitation change. The simulated changes inannual runoff were complex; however, there was no shift in seasonal runoffpattern. The 0.5 ∘C global warming difference resulted in 0.7 and 0.6 ∘C warming in basins in northern andsouthern China, respectively. This led to a projected precipitation increaseby about 2 % for the four basins and to a decrease in simulated annualrunoff of 8 % and 1 % in the SYR and the HHR, respectively, but to anincrease of 4 % in the CBR and the FJR. The uncertainty in projectedannual temperature was dominated by the GCMs or the RCPs; however, that ofprecipitation was constrained mainly by the GCMs. The 0.5 ∘Cdifference decreased the uncertainty in the annual precipitation projection and theannual and monthly runoff simulation.

Assessment of climate change impact and difference on the river runoff in four basins in China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming