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. Predicting the next major drought is of paramount interest to watermanagers globally. Estimating the onset of groundwater drought is ofparticular importance, as groundwater resources are often assumed to be moreresilient when surface water resources begin to fail. A potential source oflong-term forecasting is offered by possible periodic controls ongroundwater level via teleconnections with oscillatory ocean–atmospheresystems. However, relationships between large-scale climate systems andregional to local-scale rainfall, evapotranspiration (ET) and groundwater are often complex andnon-linear so that the influence of long-term climate cycles on groundwaterdrought remains poorly understood. Furthermore, it is currently unknownwhether the absolute contribution of multi-annual climate variability tototal groundwater storage is significant. This study assesses the extent towhich multi-annual variability in groundwater can be used to indicate thetiming of groundwater droughts in the UK. Continuous wavelet transforms showhow repeating teleconnection-driven 7-year and 16–32-year cycles in themajority of groundwater sites from all the UK's major aquifers cansystematically control the recurrence of groundwater drought; and we provideevidence that these periodic modes are driven by teleconnections. Waveletreconstructions demonstrate that multi-annual periodicities of the NorthAtlantic Oscillation, known to drive North Atlantic meteorology, comprise upto 40 % of the total groundwater storage variability. Furthermore, themajority of UK recorded droughts in recent history coincide with a minimumphase in the 7-year NAO-driven cycles in groundwater level, providinginsight into drought occurrences on a multi-annual timescale. Long-rangegroundwater drought forecasts via climate teleconnections presenttransformational opportunities to drought prediction and its managementacross the North Atlantic region.

Understanding the potential of climate teleconnections to project future groundwater drought