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. We investigate the interannual and interdecadalhydrological changes in the Amazon River basin and its sub-basins duringthe 1980–2015 period using GRACE satellite data and a physically based, 2 kmgrid continental-scale hydrological model (LEAF-Hydro-Flood) that includes aprognostic groundwater scheme and accounts for the effects of land use–landcover (LULC) change. The analyses focus on the dominant mechanisms thatmodulate terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations and droughts. We findthat (1) the model simulates the basin-averaged TWS variations remarkablywell; however, disagreements are observed in spatial patterns of temporaltrends, especially for the post-2008 period. (2) The 2010s is the driestperiod since 1980, characterized by a major shift in the decadal mean comparedto the 2000s caused by increased drought frequency. (3) Long-term trends in TWSsuggest that the Amazon overall is getting wetter (1.13 mm yr −1 ), but itssouthern and southeastern sub-basins are undergoing significant negative TWSchanges, caused primarily by intensified LULC changes. (4) Increasingdivergence between dry-season total water deficit and TWS release suggests astrengthening dry season, especially in the southern and southeasternsub-basins. (5) The sub-surface storage regulates the propagation ofmeteorological droughts into hydrological droughts by strongly modulatingTWS release with respect to its storage preceding the drought condition. Oursimulations provide crucial insight into the importance of sub-surface storagein alleviating surface water deficit across Amazon and open pathways forimproving prediction and mitigation of extreme droughts under changingclimate and increasing hydrologic alterations due to human activities (e.g.,LULC change).

hydrology and earth system sciences

Multi-decadal hydrologic change and variability in the Amazon River basin: understanding terrestrial water storage variations and drought characteristics