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. Drought is a natural disaster that may become more commonin the future under climate change. It involves changes to temperature,precipitation and/or land cover, but the relative contributions of each ofthese factors to overall drought severity is not clear. Here we apply ahigh-resolution integrated hydrologic model of the High Plains to explorethe individual importance of each of these factors and the feedbacks betweenthem. The model was constructed using ParFlow-CLM, which represents surfaceand subsurface processes in detail with physically based equations.Numerical experiments were run to perturb vegetation, precipitation andtemperature separately and in combination. Results show that decreasedprecipitation caused larger anomalies in evapotranspiration, soil moisture,stream flow and water table levels than increased temperature ordisturbed land cover did. However, these factors are not linearly additive whenapplied in combination; some effects of multifactor runs came frominteractions between temperature, precipitation and land cover. Spatialscale was important in characterizing impacts, as unpredictable andnonlinear impacts at small scales aggregate to predictable, linear large-scale behavior.

hydrology and earth system sciences

Evaluating the relative importance of precipitation, temperature and land-cover change in the hydrologic response to extreme meteorological drought conditions over the North American High Plains