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. The two-component hydrograph separation method withconductivity as a tracer is favored by hydrologists owing to its low costand easy application. This study analyzes the sensitivity of the baseflowindex (BFI, long-term ratio of baseflow to streamflow) calculated using thismethod to errors or uncertainties in two parameters (BF C , theconductivity of baseflow, and RO C , the conductivity of surface runoff)and two variables ( yk , streamflow, and SC k , specific conductance ofstreamflow, where k  is the time step) and then estimates the uncertainty inBFI. The analysis shows that for time series longer than 365 days, randommeasurement errors in  yk or SC k will cancel each other out, and theirinfluence on BFI can be neglected. An uncertainty estimation method of BFIis derived on the basis of the sensitivity analysis. Representativesensitivity indices (the ratio of the relative error in BFI to thatof BF C or RO C ) and BFI ′ uncertainties are determinedby applying the resulting equations to 24 watersheds in the US. Thesedimensionless sensitivity indices can well express the propagation of errorsor uncertainties in BF C or RO C into BFI. The results indicate thatBFI is more sensitive to BF C , and the conductivity two-componenthydrograph separation method may be more suitable for the long time seriesin a small watershed. When the mutual offset of the measurement errors inconductivity and streamflow is considered, the uncertainty in BFI is reduced by half.

hydrology and earth system sciences

Technical note: Analytical sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation of baseflow index calculated by a two-component hydrograph separation method with conductivity as a tracer