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. The climate change impact on mean and extremeprecipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed usinghigh-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made onthree regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga locatedin northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate modelsare analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills areevaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle overhistorical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under twoemission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/futurechange coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for mostmodels over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastalregions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and thespread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decreaseunder RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over thethree catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing moreevident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

hydrology and earth system sciences

Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles