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. Understanding responses by changes in land use and land cover(LULC) and climate over the past decades on streamflow in the upper BlueNile River basin is important for water management and water resourceplanning in the Nile basin at large. This study assesses the long-termtrends of rainfall and streamflow and analyses the responses of steamflow tochanges in LULC and climate in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Findings ofthe Mann–Kendall (MK) test indicate statistically insignificant increasingtrends for basin-wide annual, monthly, and longrainy-season rainfall but notrend for the daily, short rainy-season, and dry season rainfall. The Pettitt test didnot detect any jump point in basin-wide rainfall series, except for dailytime series rainfall. The findings of the MK test for daily, monthly, annual, andseasonal streamflow showed a statistically significant increasing trend.Landsat satellite images for 1973, 1985, 1995, and 2010 were used for LULCchange-detection analysis. The LULC change-detection findings indicateincreases in cultivated land and decreases in forest coverage prior to 1995,but forest area increases after 1995 with the area of cultivated land that decreased. Statistically, forest coverage changed from 17.4 % to 14.4%, by 12.2 %, and by 15.6 %, while cultivated land changed from 62.9 %to 65.6 %, by 67.5 %, and by 63.9 % from 1973 to 1985, in 1995, and in2010, respectively. Results of hydrological modelling indicate that meanannual streamflow increased by 16.9 % between the 1970s and 2000s due tothe combined effects of LULC and climate change. Findings on the effects of LULCchange on only streamflow indicate that surface runoff and base flow areaffected and are attributed to the 5.1 % reduction in forest coverage anda 4.6 % increase in cultivated land areas. The effects of climate change onlyrevealed that the increased rainfall intensity and number of extremerainfall events from 1971 to 2010 significantly affected the surface runoffand base flow. Hydrological impacts by climate change are more significantas compared to the impacts of LULC change for streamflow of the upper BlueNile River basin.

Analysis of combined and isolated effects of land-use and land-cover changes and climate change on the upper Blue Nile River basin's streamflow