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. Lake Victoria is the largest lake in Africa and one of the two major sourcesof the Nile river. The water level of Lake Victoria is determined by itswater balance, consisting of precipitation on the lake, evaporation from thelake, inflow from tributary rivers and lake outflow, controlled by twohydropower dams. Due to a scarcity of in situ observations, previous estimatesof individual water balance terms are characterized by substantialuncertainties, which means that the water balance is often not closedindependently. In this first part of a two-paper series, we present a waterbalance model for Lake Victoria, using state-of-the-art remote sensingobservations, high-resolution reanalysis downscaling and outflow valuesrecorded at the dam. The uncalibrated computation of the individual waterbalance terms yields lake level fluctuations that closely match the levelsretrieved from satellite altimetry. Precipitation is the main cause ofseasonal and interannual lake level fluctuations, and on average causes thelake level to rise from May to July and to fall from August to December.Finally, our results indicate that the 2004–2005 drop in lake level can beabout half attributed to a drought in the Lake Victoria Basin and about halfto an enhanced outflow, highlighting the sensitivity of the lake level tohuman operations at the outflow dam.

Modelling the water balance of Lake Victoria (East Africa) – Part 1: Observational analysis