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. This work addresses the impact of climate change on the hydrology of acatchment in the Mediterranean, a region that is highly susceptible tovariations in rainfall and other components of the water budget. Theassessment is based on a comparison of responses obtained from fivehydrologic models implemented for the Rio Mannu catchment in southernSardinia (Italy). The examined models – CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soiland Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation andIntegration (TOPKAPI), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator(tRIBS), and WAter balance SImulation Model (WASIM) – are all distributedhydrologic models but differ greatly in their representation of terrainfeatures and physical processes and in their numerical complexity. Aftercalibration and validation, the models were forced with bias-corrected,downscaled outputs of four combinations of global and regional climate modelsin a reference (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) period under a singleemission scenario. Climate forcing variations and the structure of thehydrologic models influence the different components of the catchmentresponse. Three water availability response variables – discharge, soilwater content, and actual evapotranspiration – are analyzed. Simulationresults from all five hydrologic models show for the future period decreasingmean annual streamflow and soil water content at 1 m depth. Actualevapotranspiration in the future will diminish according to four of the fivemodels due to drier soil conditions. Despite their significant differences,the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitationand increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strongsupport to a future scenario of increased water shortages for this region ofthe Mediterranean basin. The multimodel framework adopted for this studyallows estimation of the agreement between the five hydrologic models andbetween the four climate models. Pairwise comparison of the climate andhydrologic models is shown for the reference and future periods using arecently proposed metric that scales the Pearson correlation coefficient witha factor that accounts for systematic differences between datasets. Theresults from this analysis reflect the key structural differences between thehydrologic models, such as a representation of both vertical and lateralsubsurface flow (CATHY, TOPKAPI, and tRIBS) and a detailed treatment ofvegetation processes (SWAT and WASIM).

Multimodel assessment of climate change-induced hydrologic impacts for a Mediterranean catchment