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Increasing population and socio-economic development have putgreat pressure on water resources of the Yellow River (YR) basin. Theanticipated climate and socio-economic changes may further increase waterstress. Many studies have investigated the changes in renewable waterresources under various climate change scenarios, but few have consideredthe joint pressure from both climate change and socio-economic development.In this study, we assess water scarcity under various socio-economicpathways with emphasis on the impact of water scarcity on food production.The water demands in the 21st century are estimated based on the newlydeveloped shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and renewable water supplyis estimated using the climate projections under the RepresentativeConcentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The assessment predicts that therenewable water resources would decrease slightly then increase. Thedomestic and industrial water withdrawals are projected to increase in thenext a few decades and then remain at the high level or decrease slightlyduring the 21st century. The increase in water withdrawals will putthe middle and lower reaches in a condition of severe water scarcitybeginning in the next a few decades. If 40 % of the renewable waterresources were used to sustain ecosystems, a portion of irrigated land wouldhave to be converted to rain-fed agriculture, which would lead to a 2–11 %reduction in food production. This study highlights the links between water,food and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offsshould be considered when developing regional adaptation strategies

Water scarcity under various socio-economic pathways and its potential effects on food production in the Yellow River basin