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Water temperatures and stratification are important drivers for\udecological and water quality processes within lake systems, and changes in\udthese with increases in air temperature and changes to wind speeds may have\udsignificant ecological consequences. To properly manage these systems under\udchanging climate, it is important to understand the effects of increasing air\udtemperatures and wind speed changes in lakes of different depths and surface\udareas. In this study, we simulate three lakes that vary in depth and surface\udarea to elucidate the effects of the observed increasing air temperatures and\uddecreasing wind speeds on lake thermal variables (water temperature,\udstratification dates, strength of stratification, and surface heat fluxes)\udover a century (1911–2014). For all three lakes, simulations showed that\udepilimnetic temperatures increased, hypolimnetic temperatures decreased, the\udlength of the stratified season increased due to earlier stratification onset\udand later fall overturn, stability increased, and longwave and sensible heat\udfluxes at the surface increased. Overall, lake depth influences the presence of\udstratification, Schmidt stability, and differences in surface heat flux,\udwhile lake surface area influences differences in hypolimnion temperature,\udhypolimnetic heating, variability of Schmidt stability, and stratification\udonset and fall overturn dates. Larger surface area lakes have greater wind\udmixing due to increased surface momentum. Climate perturbations indicate that\udour larger study lakes have more variability in temperature and\udstratification variables than the smaller lakes, and this variability\udincreases with larger wind speeds. For all study lakes, Pearson correlations\udand climate perturbation scenarios indicate that wind speed has a large\udeffect on temperature and stratification variables, sometimes greater than\udchanges in air temperature, and wind can act to either amplify or mitigate\udthe effect of warmer air temperatures on lake thermal structure depending on\udthe direction of local wind speed changes

Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry