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The impact of water policy on conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in Groundwater\udManagement District 3 (GMD3) in southwestern Kansas is analyzed using a\udsystem-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use\udpatterns, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so\uddoing, we (1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural–human (CNH) system, (2) forecast outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic, and natural components of the integrated system, and (3) develop public policy options for enhanced conservation while minimizing the economic costs for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage reduces the impact of an increasingly drier climate on the region's economy and creates greater long-term stability in\udthe farming sector along with increased employment and population in the\udregion. On the negative side, conservation lowers the net present value of\udfarmers' current investments and there is not a policy scenario that achieves\uda truly sustainable solution as defined by Peter H. Gleick. This study\udreinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide\udpolicy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues

Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in southwestern Kansas: from the wells to people, a holistic coupled natural–human model