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To solve the problem of estimating and verifying\udstream flow without direct observation data, we estimated stream flow in\udungauged zones by coupling a hydrological model with a hydrodynamic model,\udusing the Poyang Lake basin as a test case. To simulate the stream flow of\udthe ungauged zone, we built a soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model for the entire catchment area\udcovering the upstream gauged area and ungauged zone, and then calibrated the\udSWAT model using the data in the gauged area. To verify the results, we\udbuilt two hydrodynamic scenarios (the original and adjusted scenarios) for\udPoyang Lake using the Delft3D model. In the original scenario, the upstream\udboundary condition is the observed stream flow from the upstream gauged area,\udwhile, in the adjusted scenario, it is the sum of the observed stream flow from the gauged area and the\udsimulated stream flow from the ungauged zone. The experimental results\udshowed that there is a stronger correlation and lower bias (R2 = 0.81, PBIAS  =  10.00 %) between the observed and simulated stream flow in\udthe adjusted scenario compared to that (R2 = 0.77, PBIAS  =  20.10 %) in the original scenario, suggesting the simulated stream flow of\udthe ungauged zone is reasonable. Using this method, we estimated the\udstream flow of the Poyang Lake ungauged zone as 16.4 ± 6.2 billion m3 a−1, representing ∼ 11.24 % of the annual total water\udyield of the entire watershed. Of the annual water yield, 70 % (11.48 billion m3 a−1) is concentrated in the wet season, while 30 %\ud(4.92 billion m3 a−1) comes from the dry season. The ungauged stream flow\udsignificantly improves the water balance with the closing error decreased by\ud13.48 billion m3 a−1 (10.10 % of the total annual water resource) from\ud30.20 ± 9.1 billion m3 a−1 (20.10 % of the total annual water\udresource) to 16.72 ± 8.53 billion m3 a−1 (10.00 % of the total\udannual water resource). The method can be extended to other lake, river, or\udocean basins where observation data is unavailable

hydrology and earth system sciences

Stream flow simulation and verification in ungauged zones by coupling hydrological and hydrodynamic models: a case study of the Poyang Lake ungauged zone