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This study examines the relative roles of climatic variables in altering\udannual runoff in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century,\udusing a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress Index model,\udWaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from\ud20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. The\udresults suggest that precipitation has been the primary control of runoff\udvariation during the latest decades, but the role of temperature will\udoutweigh that of precipitation in most regions if future climate change\udfollows the projections of climate models instead of the historical\udtendencies. Besides these two key factors, increasing air humidity is\udprojected to partially offset the additional evaporative demand caused by\udwarming and consequently enhance runoff. Overall, the projections from 20\udclimate models suggest a high degree of consistency on the increasing trends\udin temperature, precipitation, and humidity, which will be the major climatic\uddriving factors accounting for 43–50, 20–24, and\ud16–23 % of the runoff change, respectively. Spatially, while temperature\udrise is recognized as the largest contributor that suppresses runoff in most\udareas, precipitation is expected to be the dominant factor driving runoff to\udincrease across the Pacific coast and the southwest. The combined effects of\udincreasing humidity and precipitation may also surpass the detrimental\udeffects of warming and result in a hydrologically wetter future in the east.\udHowever, severe runoff depletion is more likely to occur in the central CONUS\udas temperature effect prevails

Future shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States