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In many semi-arid regions, multisectoral demands often stress available water\udsupplies. Such is the case in the Elqui River valley of northern Chile, which\uddraws on a limited-capacity reservoir to allocate 25 000 water rights.\udDelayed infrastructure investment forces water managers to address\uddemand-based allocation strategies, particularly in dry years, which are\udrealized through reductions in the volume associated with each water right.\udSkillful season-ahead streamflow forecasts have the potential to inform\udmanagers with an indication of future conditions to guide reservoir\udallocations. This work evaluates season-ahead statistical prediction models\udof October–January (growing season) streamflow at multiple lead times\udassociated with manager and user decision points, and links predictions with\uda reservoir allocation tool. Skillful results (streamflow forecasts\udoutperform climatology) are produced for short lead times (1 September:\udranked probability skill score (RPSS) of 0.31, categorical hit skill score of\ud61 %). At longer lead times, climatological skill exceeds forecast skill\uddue to fewer observations of precipitation. However, coupling the 1 September\udstatistical forecast model with a sea surface temperature phase and strength\udstatistical model allows for equally skillful categorical streamflow\udforecasts to be produced for a 1 May lead, triggered for 60 % of years\ud(1950–2015), suggesting forecasts need not be strictly deterministic to be\uduseful for water rights holders. An early (1 May) categorical indication of\udexpected conditions is reinforced with a deterministic forecast (1 September)\udas more observations of local variables become available. The reservoir\udallocation model is skillful at the 1 September lead (categorical hit skill\udscore of 53 %); skill improves to 79 % when categorical allocation\udprediction certainty exceeds 80 %. This result implies that allocation\udefficiency may improve when forecasts are integrated into reservoir decision\udframeworks. The methods applied here advance the understanding of the\udmechanisms and timing responsible for moisture transport to the Elqui Valley\udand provide a unique application of streamflow forecasting in the prediction\udof water right allocations

Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile