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Climate warming has been more acute in the Arctic than at lowerlatitudes and this tendency is expected to continue. This generates majorchallenges for economic activity in the region. Among other issues is thelong-term planning and development of socio-economic infrastructure(dams, bridges, roads, etc.), which require climate-based forecasts of thefrequency and magnitude of detrimental flood events. To estimate the cost ofthe infrastructure and operational risk, a probabilistic form of long-termforecasting is preferable. In this study, a probabilistic model to simulatethe parameters of the probability density function (PDF) for multi-yearrunoff based on a projected climatology is applied to evaluate changes inextreme floods for the territory of the Russian Arctic. The model isvalidated by cross-comparison of the modelled and empirical PDFs usingobservations from 23 sites located in northern Russia. The mean values andcoefficients of variation (CVs) of the spring flood depth of runoff are evaluatedunder four climate scenarios, using simulations of six climate models for theperiod 2010–2039. Regions with substantial expected changes in the means andCVs of spring flood depth of runoff are outlined. For the sites located within suchregions, it is suggested to account for the future climate change incalculating the maximal discharges of rare occurrence. An example ofengineering calculations for maximal discharges with 1 % exceedanceprobability is provided for the Nadym River at Nadym

Assessment of extreme flood events in a changing climate for a long-term planning of socio-economic infrastructure in the Russian Arctic