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An increasingly uneven distribution of hydrometeorological factors relatedto climate change has been detected by global climate models (GCMs) in whichthe pattern of changes in water availability is commonly described by thephrase <q>dry gets drier, wet gets wetter</q> (DDWW). However, the DDWW patternis dominated by oceanic areas; recent studies based on both observed andmodelled data have failed to verify the DDWW pattern on land. This studyconfirms the existence of a new DDWW pattern in China after analysing theobserved streamflow data from 291 Chinese catchments from 1956 to 2000,which reveal that the distribution of water resources has becomeincreasingly uneven since the 1950s. This pattern can be more accuratelydescribed as <q>drier regions are more likely to become drier, whereas wetterregions are more likely to become wetter</q>. Based on a framework derivedfrom the Budyko hypothesis, this study estimates runoff trends viaobservations of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (Ep)and predicts the future trends from 2001 to 2050 according to theprojections of five GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectPhase 5 (CMIP5) under three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Theresults show that this framework has a good performance for estimatingrunoff trends; such changes in P play the most significant role. Most areas of China, including more than 60 % of catchments, will experience waterresource shortages under the projected climate changes. Despite thedifferences among the predicted results of the different models, the DDWWpattern does not hold in the projections regardless of the model used.Nevertheless, this conclusion remains tentative owing to the largeuncertainties in the GCM outputs

Historical and future trends in wetting and drying in 291 catchments across China