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Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yieldand ecosystem productivity is essential to developing sound watershedrestoration plans, and ecosystem adaptation and mitigation strategies. Thisstudy links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI)with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) using dynamically downscaledclimate data of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario.We evaluated the future (2031–2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET),water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baselineperiod of 1979–2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12-digit Hydrologic UnitCode level) in the coterminous US (CONUS). Across the CONUS, the futuremulti-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of45 mm yr−1 (6 %), 1.8° C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr−1(7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr−1 (3 %) increase in Q, and106 gC m−2 yr−1 (9 %) increase in GPP. We found a large spatialvariability in response to climate change across the CONUS 12-digit HUCwatersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases allvariables evaluated. Over half of the watersheds, mostly found in thenortheast and the southern part of the southwest, would see an increase inannual Q (> 100 mm yr−1 or 20 %). In addition, we alsoevaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystemproductivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or two-digit HUCs. Thestudy provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessmentof the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances andecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results maybe useful for policy-makers and land managers to formulate appropriatewatershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in theface of climate change

hydrology and earth system sciences

Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data