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This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscaleriver basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes todetermining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessmentgrounded in real-world water management issues, with water managementscenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, wepresent an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals andpresent the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furtheringthe significance of our study for water management. A modeling frameworkintegrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactionsbetween resource and demand was applied in two basins of different scales andwith contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km<sup>2</sup>, France) and theEbro (85 000 km<sup>2</sup>, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluatedusing a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir managementmodel was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams.Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic,socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for bydefining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited.Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategicresource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied underdifferent combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21stto differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes onstreamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthlyenvironmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in bothbasins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses morethan once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections onboth water availability and demand could question the water allocations andenvironmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Watershortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and thepressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. Thecauses of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in mostareas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario

Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century