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Since 1950, the Niger Riverbasin has gone through three main climatic periods: a wet period(1950–1960), an extended drought (1970–1980) and since 1990a recent partial recovery ofannual rainfall. Hydrological changes co-occur with these rainfallfluctuations. In most of the basin, the rainfall deficit caused an enhanceddischarge deficit, but in the Sahelian region the runoff increased despitethe rainfall deficit. Since 2000 the Sahelian part of the Niger has been hitby an increase of flood hazards during the so-called red flood period. InNiamey city, the highest river levels and the longest flooded period everrecorded occurred in 2003, 2010, 2012 and 2013, with heavy casualties andproperty damage. The reasons for these changes, and the relative role ofclimate versus land use–land cover (LULC) changes are still debated and areinvestigated in this paper. The evolution of the Niger red flood in Niameyfrom 1950 to 2012 is analysed based on long-term records of rainfall (threedata sets based on in situ and/or satellite data) and discharge, and ahydrological model. The model is first run with the present LULC conditionsin order to analyse solely the effect of rainfall variability. The impact ofLULC and drainage area modification is investigated in a second step. Thesimulations based on the current surface conditions are able to reproduce theobserved trend in the red flood occurrence and intensity since the 1980s.This has been verified with three independent rainfall data sets and impliesthat rainfall variability is the main driver for the red floodintensification observed over the last 30 years. The simulation results since1953 have revealed that LULC and drainage area changes need to be invoked toexplain the changes over a 60-year period

hydrology and earth system sciences

Model-based study of the role of rainfall and land use–land cover in the changes in the occurrence and intensity of Niger red floods in Niamey between 1953 and 2012