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The responses of river runoff to shifts of large-scale climaticpatterns are of increasing concerns to water resource planners and managersfor long-term climate change adaptation. El Niño, as one of the mostdominant modes of climate variability, is closely linked to hydrologicextremes such as floods and droughts that cause great loss of lives andproperties. However, the different impacts of the two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP-) and eastern Pacific (EP-)El Niño, on runoffacross the conterminous US (CONUS) are not well understood. This studycharacterizes the impacts of the CP- and EP-El Niño on seasonal andannual runoff using observed streamflow data from 658 reference gagingstations and the NCAR-CCSM4 model. We found that surface runoff respondssimilarly to the two types of El Niño events in southeastern, central,southern, and western coastal regions, but differently in northeast (NE),Pacific northwest (PNW) and west north central (WNC) climatic zones.Specifically, EP-El Niño events tend to bring above-average runoff inNE, WNC, and PNW throughout the year while CP-El Niño events causebelow-than normal runoff in the three regions. Similar findings were alsofound by analyzing NCAR-CCSM4 model outputs that captured both the CP- andEP-El Niño events, representing the best data set among CMIP5 models. TheCCSM4 model simulates lower runoff values during CP-El Niño years thanthose in EP-El Niño over all of the three climatic regions (NE, PNW, andWNC) during 1950–1999. In the future (2050–2099), for both types of ElNiño years, runoff is projected to increase over the NE and PNW regions,mainly due to increased precipitation (<Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis>). In contrast, the increase offuture evapotranspiration (ET) exceeds that of future <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis>, leading to a projecteddecrease in runoff over the WNC region. In addition, model analysisindicates that all of the three regions (NE, PNW, and WNC) are projected tohave lower runoff in CP-El Niño years than in EP-El Niño years. Ourstudy suggests that the US water resources may be distributed moreunevenly in space and time with more frequent and intense flood and droughtevents. The findings from this study have important implications to waterresource management at regional scales. Information generated from thisstudy may help water resource planners to anticipate the influence of twodifferent types of El Niño events on droughts and floods across theCONUS

Impact of two different types of El Niño events on runoff over the conterminous United States