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The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, hasexperienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggestthat both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of watersupply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of thedecline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate inthe past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantifythe separate and collective contributions of land use change and climatevariability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008.Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensiveapproach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associatedenvironmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology andremote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the differentimpacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow duringdifferent sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticitymodel (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conductattribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01)decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annualpotential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant(p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008.We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequentialMann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did notexplain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yieldwas closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to theexpansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and waslikely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic andindustrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflowdecline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climatevariation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 %during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated thatclimate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the mostrecent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change andvariability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the MiyunReservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed managementstrategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetationmanagement in the study basin

Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China