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Surface climate in Europe is changing and patterns in trends have been foundto vary at sub-seasonal scales. This study aims to contribute to a betterunderstanding of these changes across space and time by analysing to whatdegree observed climatic trends can be attributed to changes in synopticatmospheric circulation. The relative importance of synoptic circulationchanges (i.e. trends in synoptic type frequencies) as opposed to trends inthe hydrothermal properties of synoptic types (within-type trends) onprecipitation and temperature trends in Europe is assessed on a monthlybasis. The study is based on mapping spatial and temporal trend patterns andtheir variability at a relatively high resolution (0.5° × 0.5°; monthly) across Europe. Gridded precipitation andtemperature data (1963–2001) originate from the Watch Forcing Data set andsynoptic types are defined by the objective SynopVis Grosswetterlagen (SVG).During the study period, relatively high influence of synoptic circulationchanges are found from January to March, contributing to wetting trends innorthern Europe and drying in the south. Simultaneously, particularly drysynoptic types get warmer first in south-western Europe in November and/or Decemberand affect most of Europe in March and/or April. Strong influence ofsynoptic circulation changes is again found in June and August. In general,changes in synoptic circulation has a stronger effect on climate trends in north-westernEurope than in the south-east. The exact locations of the strongestinfluence of synoptic circulation changes vary with the time of year and tosome degree between precipitation and temperature. Throughout the year andacross the whole of Europe, precipitation and temperature trends are causedby a combination of synoptic circulation changes and within-type changeswith their relative influence varying between regions, months and climatevariables

Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation