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The effects of development and the uncertainty of a changing climate ineastern Africa pose myriad challenges for water managers along the Blue Nile.Sudan's large irrigation potential, hydroelectric dams, and prime locationwithin the basin mean that Sudan's water management decisions will have greatsocial, economic and political implications for the region. At the same time,Sudan's water use options are constrained by tradeoffs between upstreamirrigation developments and downstream hydropower facilities as well as bythe country's commitments under existing or future transboundary watersharing agreements. Here, we present a model that can be applied to evaluateoptimal allocation of surface water resources to irrigation and hydropower inthe Sudanese portion of the Blue Nile. Hydrologic inputs are combined withagronomic and economic inputs to formulate an optimization model withinthe General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). A sensitivity analysis isperformed by testing model response to a range of economic conditions and tochanges in the volume and timing of hydrologic flows. Results indicate thatchanging hydroclimate inputs have the capacity to greatly influence theproductivity of Sudan's water resource infrastructure. Results also show thatthe economically optimal volume of water consumption, and thus the importanceof existing treaty constraints, is sensitive to the perceived value ofagriculture relative to electricity as well as to changing hydrologicalconditions

The question of Sudan: a hydro-economic optimization model for the Sudanese Blue Nile