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Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systemscannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have agreat impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport.Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climaticchanges but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alterthe hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality ofregional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and dischargeconditions under future climate and land use changes is essential forintegrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system(MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformationfrom dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significantdrop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream–aquiferinteraction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial andtemporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for aproper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion iscompromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstreamdemands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intenseuse of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwaternitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts ofclimate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelingframework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturallybased hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainlygroundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs underchanging evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOWinputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts onstream–aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads fromSWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3DMS inputs forassessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Threeclimate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to threedifferent general circulation models (GCMs) for emission scenario A1B thatcovers the control period, and short-, medium- and long-term future periods.A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the studyof historical trends (from remote-sensing images) and key driving forces toexplain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios andprojections were used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automatatechnique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. Simulatedvalues of river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and nitrateconcentrations fit well to the observed ones. The results show the responseof groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate pollution) to climate and landuse changes, with decreasing groundwater recharge and an increase in nitrateconcentrations. The sequential modeling chain has been proven to be avaluable assessment tool for supporting the development of sustainablemanagement strategies

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)