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The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal, and is expected to beexperienced through increases in the magnitude and frequency of extremeevents, including flooding. This paper presents an analysis of theimplications of climate change on the future flood hazard in the BeijiangRiver basin in South China, using a variable infiltration capacity (VIC)model. Uncertainty is considered by employing five global climate models(GCMs), three emission scenarios (representative concentration pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), 10 downscaling simulations for each emissionscenario, and two stages of future periods (2020–2050, 2050–2080).Credibility of the projected changes in floods is described using anuncertainty expression approach, as recommended by the Fifth AssessmentReport (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Theresults suggest that the VIC model shows a good performance in simulatingextreme floods, with a daily runoff Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE) of 0.91. The GCMs and emission scenarios are a large source ofuncertainty in predictions of future floods over the study region, althoughthe overall uncertainty range for changes in historical extreme precipitationand flood magnitudes are well represented by the five GCMs. During theperiods 2020–2050 and 2050–2080, annual maximum 1-day discharges (AMX1d)and annual maximum 7-day flood volumes (AMX7fv) are expected to show verysimilar trends, with the largest possibility of increasing trends occurringunder the RCP2.6 scenario, and the smallest possibility of increasing trendsunder the RCP4.5 scenario. The projected ranges of AMX1d and AMX7fv showrelatively large variability under different future scenarios in the fiveGCMs, but most project an increase during the two future periods (relative tothe baseline period 1970–2000)

Prediction of extreme floods based on CMIP5 climate models: a case study in the Beijiang River basin, South China