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In this study we present an integrative modeling framework aimed at assessingthe balance between water demand and availability and its spatial andtemporal variability over long time periods. The model was developed andtested over the period 1971–2009 in the Hérault(2500 km<sup>2</sup>, France) and the Ebro(85 000 km<sup>2</sup>, Spain) catchments. Natural streamflowwas simulated using a conceptual hydrological model. The regulation of riverflow was accounted for through a widely applicable demand-driven reservoirmanagement model applied to the largest dam in the Hérault Basin and to 11major dams in the Ebro Basin. Urban water demand was estimated frompopulation and monthly unit water demand data. Water demand for irrigationwas computed from irrigated area, crop and soil data, and climatic forcing.Water shortage was assessed at a 10-day time step by comparing water demandand availability through indicators calculated at strategic resource anddemand nodes. The outcome of this study is twofold. First, we were able tocorrectly simulate variations in influenced streamflow, reservoir levels andwater shortage between 1971 and 2009 in both basins, taking into accountclimatic and anthropogenic pressures and changes in water managementstrategies over time. Second, we provided information not available throughsimple data analysis on the influence of withdrawals and consumptive use onstreamflow and on the drivers of imbalance between demand and availability.Observed past variations in discharge were explained by separatinganthropogenic and climatic pressures in our simulations: 3% (20%) of thedecrease in the Hérault (Ebro) discharge were linked to anthropogenicchanges. Although key areas of the Hérault Basin were shown to be highlysensitive to hydro-climatic variability, the balance between water demand andavailability in the Ebro Basin appears to be more critical, owing to highagricultural pressure on water resources. The modeling framework developedand tested in this study will be used to assess water balance under climaticand socioeconomic prospective scenarios and to investigate the effectivenessof adaptation policies aimed at maintaining the balance between water demandand availability

Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale