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Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastatinghazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-seasonevents are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the samecannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationshipbetween large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thushydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that thedynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as atrigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution byinterflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associatedwith the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallowlandslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The firstobjective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The secondobjective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled floodprediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibratedmodel simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments ofthe Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface–groundwater hydrologic modelcoupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, wefocus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debrisflows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin,North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavysummertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lastingseveral days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selecteddue to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability ofdetailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, whichcan be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they arerepresentative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. Themodel results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic ofconditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and shouldtherefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments.Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow arestrongly modulated by the topography and catchment-specific geomorphologicfeatures that determine subsurface flow convergence zones. The threecase studies demonstrate the value of coupled prediction of flood responseand debris flow initiation potential in the context of developing a regionalhazard warning system

Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA