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Widely used metrics of drought are still derived solely from analyses ofmeteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature. Whiledrought is generally a consequence of atmospheric anomalies, the impacts tosociety are more directly related to hydrologic conditions. The presentstudy uses a standardized runoff index (SRI) as a proxy for river dischargeand as a benchmark for various meteorological drought indices (scPDSI, SPI,SPEI_th, and SPEI_hg respectively). Only12-month duration droughts are considered in order to allow a direct (noriver routing) comparison between meteorological anomalies and theirhydrological counterpart. The analysis is conducted over the Mississippi andAmazon river basins, which provide two contrasted test beds for evaluatingdrought indices at both interannual (using detrended data) and climatechange (using raw data) timescales. Looking first at observations over thesecond half of the 20th century, the simple SPI based solely onprecipitation is no less suitable than more sophisticated meteorologicaldrought indices at detecting interannual SRI variations. Using the detrendedrunoff and meteorological outputs of a five-member single model ensemble ofhistorical and 21th century climate simulations leads to the sameconclusion. Looking at the 21st century projections, the response ofthe areal fraction in drought to global warming is shown to be stronglymetric dependent and potentially overestimated by the drought indices whichaccount for temperature variations. These results suggest that empiricalmeteorological drought indices should be considered with great caution in awarming climate and that more physical water balance models are needed toaccount for the impact of the anthropogenic radiative forcings onhydrological droughts

hydrology and earth system sciences

Hydrologic benchmarking of meteorological drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: a case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins