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An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of theinteractions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle,and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changingclimate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a globalintegrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven bysocioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashionwith a land surface hydrology–routing–water resources management model. Toreconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporaldisaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional waterdemand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. Themodel demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flowregulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi,and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, watersupply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projectionswith the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow andwater demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climatechange in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in thechanges of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi riverbasins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flowdue to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demandhave effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes indemand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, globalmarkets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the landsurface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit(unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by thechange in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework showsthat supply deficit over the Missouri River Basin sees an increasingsensitivity to changes in demand in future periods. It further shows that thesupply deficit is six times as sensitive as the actual supply to changes inflow and demand. A spatial analysis of the supply deficit demonstratesvulnerabilities of urban areas located along mainstream with limited storage

One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest