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Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different  regions around the world, causing agricultural and economic losses,  famines and migration. Despite their devastating consequences, the  Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) of these events lies within  the general range of observation-based SPI time series and  simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison  Project (CMIP5). In terms of magnitude, regional trends of SPI over  the last decades remain mostly inconclusive in observation-based  datasets and CMIP5 simulations, but Soil Moisture Anomalies (SMAs)  in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions  (e.g., the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon,  North-East Brazil and South Africa). Also for the future,  projections of changes in the magnitude of meteorological (SPI) and  soil moisture (SMA) drought in CMIP5 display large spreads over all  time frames, generally impeding trend detection. However,  projections of changes in the frequencies of future drought events  display more robust signal-to-noise ratios, with detectable trends  towards more frequent drought before the end of the 21st century in  the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other  present-day hot spots are projected to become less drought-prone, or  display non-significant changes in drought occurrence. A separation  of different sources of uncertainty in projections of meteorological  and soil moisture drought reveals that for the near term, internal  climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulation of  Global Climate Models (GCMs) generally becomes the dominant source  of spread by the end of the 21st century, especially for soil  moisture drought. In comparison, the uncertainty from Green-House Gas  (GHG) concentrations scenarios is negligible for most regions.  These findings stand in contrast to respective analyses for a heat  wave index, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the  main source of uncertainty. Our results highlight the inherent  difficulty of drought quantification and the considerable likelihood  range of drought projections, but also indicate regions where  drought is consistently found to increase. In other regions, wide  likelihood range should not be equated with low drought risk, since  potential scenarios include large drought increases in key  agricultural and ecosystem regions

Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections