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Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high andmidlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections bythe Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model.The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community ClimateSystem Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage asNorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn andearly winter (September through December) – the period when the ongoing andprojected Arctic sea ice retreat is the greatest. Storm tracks derived from avorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well byNorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in thehigher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks show indications ofshifting polewards in the future as climate changes under the RepresentativeConcentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected tobecome generally more intense in the high latitudes, especially over theAlaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected todecrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, thereis a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and morefrequent storms in high latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Straitregion in September. Autumn precipitation is projected to increasesignificantly across the entire high latitudes. Together with the projectedloss of sea ice and increases in storm intensity and sea level, this increasein precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding anderosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in stormintensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scalegenerally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time throughthe 21st century

Northern Hemisphere storminess in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M)