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A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last  ∼  20 000 yr. A large ensembleof 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data,including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records,elevation–age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed foreach run that measures overall model–data misfit. Two types of statisticalmethods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averagingweighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniquesinvolving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chainMonte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-definedparametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only providesrobust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble.Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-levelrise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advancedtechniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected fromprior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modernocean beds

Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques