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. The region of southern Africa (SAF) is highly vulnerableto the impacts of climate change and is projected to experience severeprecipitation shortages in the coming decades. Ensuring that our modelingtools are fit for the purpose of assessing these changes is critical. Inthis work we compare a range of satellite products along with gauge-baseddatasets. Additionally, we investigate the behavior of regional climatesimulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment(CORDEX) – Africa domain, along with simulations from the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6). We identifyconsiderable variability in the standard deviation of precipitation betweensatellite products that merge with rain gauges and satellite products thatdo not, during the rainy season (October–March), indicating high observationaluncertainty for specific regions over SAF. Good agreement both in spatialpattern and the strength of the calculated trends is found between satelliteand gauge-based products, however. Both CORDEX-Africa and CMIP ensemblesunderestimate the observed trends during the analysis period. The CMIP6ensemble displayed persistent drying trends, in direct contrast to theobservations. The regional ensembles exhibited improved performance comparedto their forcing (CMIP5), when the annual cycle and the extremeprecipitation indices were examined, confirming the added value of thehigher-resolution regional climate simulations. The CMIP6 ensemble displayeda similar behavior to CMIP5, but reducing slightly the ensemble spread.However, we show that reproduction of some key SAF phenomena, like theAngola Low (which exerts a strong influence on regional precipitation),still poses a challenge for the global and regional models. This is likely aresult of the complex climatic processes that take place. Improvements inobservational networks (both in situ and satellite) as well as continuedadvancements in high-resolution modeling will be critical, in order todevelop a robust assessment of climate change for southern Africa.

Precipitation over southern Africa: is there consensus among global climate models (GCMs), regional climate models (RCMs) and observational data?