English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Free Plan

. The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ∘Cabove pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targetsto achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particularuncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offsbetween GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink tooffset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicatethe role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU managementstrategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using theexample of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approachof Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysicalconstraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emissionfactors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for eachscenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreementcommitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according tocompliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriatelong-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkagesacross food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate differentscenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

GOBLIN version 1.0: a land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting