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. We introduce the first toolbox that allows exploring the benefitof air pollution mitigation scenarios in the every-day air quality forecaststhrough a web interface. Chemistry-transport models (CTMs) are required toforecast air pollution episodes and assess the benefit that shall beexpected from mitigation strategies. However, their complexity prohibitsoffering a high level of flexibility in the tested emission reductions. TheAir Control Toolbox (ACT) introduces an innovative automated calibrationmethod to cope with this limitation. It consists of a surrogate modeltrained on a limited set of sensitivity scenarios to allow exploring anycombination of mitigation measures. As such, we take the best of the physicaland chemical complexity of CTMs, operated on high-performance computers forthe every-day forecast, but we approximate a simplified response functionthat can be operated through a website to emulate the sensitivity of theatmospheric system to anthropogenic emission changes for a given day andlocation. The numerical experimental plan to design the structure of the surrogatemodel is detailed by increasing level of complexity. The structure of thesurrogate model ultimately selected is a quadrivariate polynomial of firstorder for residential heating emissions and second order for agriculture,industry and traffic emissions with three interaction terms. It iscalibrated against 12 sensitivity CTM simulations, at each grid point andevery day for PM10, PM2.5, O3 (both as daily mean and dailymaximum) and NO2. The validation study demonstrates that we can keeprelative errors below 2 % at 95 % of the grid points and days for allpollutants. The selected approach makes ACT the first air quality surrogate modelcapable to capture non-linearities in atmospheric chemistry response.Existing air quality surrogate models generally rely on a linearityassumption over a given range of emission reductions, which often limitstheir applicability to annual indicators. Such a structure makes ACTespecially relevant to understand the main drivers of air pollution episodeanalysis. This feature is a strong asset of this innovative tool which makesit also relevant for source apportionment and chemical regime analysis. Thisbreakthrough was only possible by assuming uniform and constant emissionreductions for the four targeted activity sectors. This version of the toolis therefore not suited to investigate short-term mitigation measures orspatially varying emission reductions.

Air Control Toolbox (ACT_v1.0): a flexible surrogate model to explore mitigation scenarios in air quality forecasts