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. Two international projects, ISIMIP (Inter-Sectoral ImpactModel Intercomparison Project) and CORDEX (Coordinated Regional ClimateDownscaling Experiment), have been established to assess the impacts ofglobal climate change and improve our understanding of regional climaterespectively. Model selection from the GCMs (general circulation models)within CMIP5 (fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) wasconducted using the different approaches for each project: one is a globallyconsistent model subset used in ISIMIP and the other is a region-specificmodel subset for each region of interest used in CORDEX. We evaluated theability to reproduce the regional climatological state by comparing thesubsets with the full set of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. We also investigatedhow well the subsets captured the uncertainty in the climate changeprojected by the full set, to increase credibility for thescientific outcomes from each project. The spreads of the biases andTaylor's skill scores from the ISIMIP and CORDEX subsets are smaller thanthat from the full set for the regional means of surface air temperature andprecipitation. However, the ISIMIP and CORDEX subsets show the larger spreadthan high-performance models from the full set, despite using a small numberof models in ISIMIP and CORDEX. It was shown that better subsets exist thatwould have smaller biases and/or higher scores than the current subset. TheISIMIP subset captures the uncertainty range of the regional mean oftemperature change projections by the full set better than the CORDEXsubsets in 10 of 14 terrestrial regions worldwide. Compared with 10 000randomly selected subset samples, the CORDEX subset shows low coverage ofthe uncertainty for the temperature change projections in some regions, andthe ISIMIP subset shows high coverage in all regions. On the other hand, for theprecipitation change projections, the CORDEX subsets show lower coverage inhalf of the regions than the randomly selected subsets, but tend to coverthe uncertainty wider than the ISIMIP subset. In the regions where CORDEXused nine models or more, good coverage (&gt;50 %) is evident forthe projections of both temperature and precipitation. The globallyconsistent model subset used in ISIMIP could have difficulty in capturinguncertainties in the regional precipitation change projections, whereas itwidely covers uncertainties in the temperature change projections. Theregion-specific model subset, like CORDEX, can cover the uncertainties inboth temperature and precipitation changes well compared to the globalcommon subset, but a large number of models is needed. By changing thenumber of models from the current ensemble members to at least nine members,high coverage for both uncertainties can be also obtained in the otherregions, and this information would help model selection in the nextgenerations.

Uncertainties in climate change projections covered by the ISIMIP and CORDEX model subsets from CMIP5