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. The authors developed a three-dimensional variational (3-DVAR) aerosolextinction coefficient (AEC) and aerosol mass concentration (AMC) dataassimilation (DA) system for aerosol variables in the Weather Research andForecasting–Chemistry (WRF–Chem) model with the WRF–Chem using the Modelfor Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) scheme. Theyestablish an AEC observation operator and its corresponding adjoint based onthe Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE)equation and investigate the use of lidar AEC and surface AMC DA to forecastmass concentration (MC) profiles of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with anaerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5  µ m) across China. Two sets ofdata were assimilated: AEC profiles captured by five conventional Miescattering lidars (positioned in Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Xuzhou, andWuhu) and PM 2.5 and PM 10 MC data obtained from over 1500 groundenvironmental monitoring stations across China. Three DA experiments (i.e.,a PM 2.5 (PM 10 ) DA experiment, a lidar AEC DA experiment, and asimultaneous PM 2.5 (PM 10 ) and lidar AEC DA experiment) with a 12 hassimilation period and a 24 h forecast period were conducted. ThePM 2.5 (PM 10 ) DA reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) of thesurface PM 2.5 MC in the initial field of the model by 38.6  µ g m −3 (64.8 %). When lidar AEC data were assimilated, this reduction was 10.5  µ g m −3 (17.6 %), and a 38.4  µ g m −3 (64.4 %)reduction occurred when the two data sets were assimilated simultaneously,although only five lidars were available within the simulation region(approximately 2.33 million km 2 in size). The RMSEs of the forecastedsurface PM 2.5 MC 24 h after the DA period in the three DA experimentswere reduced by 6.1  µ g m −3 (11.8 %), 1.5  µ g m −3 (2.9 %),and 6.5  µ g m −3 (12.6 %), respectively, indicating that theassimilation and hence the optimization of the initial field have a positiveeffect on the PM 2.5 MC forecast performance over a period of 24 h afterthe DA period.

geoscientific model development

Development of a three-dimensional variational assimilation system for lidar profile data based on a size-resolved aerosol model in WRF–Chem model v3.9.1 and its application in PM&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2.5&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; forecasts across China