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. Many climate extremes, including heatwaves and heavyprecipitation events, are projected to worsen under climate change, withimportant impacts for society. Future projections required for adaptationare often based on climate model simulations. Given finite resources,trade-offs must be made concerning model resolution, ensemble size, and levelof model complexity. Here we focus on the resolution component. A givenresolution can be achieved over a region using either global climate models(GCMs) or at lower cost using regional climate models (RCMs) thatdynamically downscale coarser GCMs. Both approaches to increasing resolutionmay better capture small-scale processes and features (downscaling effect),but increased GCM resolution may also improve the representation of thelarge-scale atmospheric circulation (upscaling effect). The size of thisupscaling effect is therefore important for deciding modelling strategies.Here we evaluate the benefits of increased model resolution for both globaland regional climate models for simulating temperature, precipitation, andwind extremes over Europe at resolutions that could currently berealistically used for coordinated sets of climate projections at thepan-European scale. First we examine the benefits of regional downscaling bycomparing EURO-CORDEX simulations at 12.5 and 50 km resolution to theircoarser CMIP5 driving simulations. Secondly, we compare global-scaleHadGEM3-A simulations at three resolutions (130, 60, and 25 km). Finally, weseparate out resolution-dependent differences for HadGEM3-A into downscalingand upscaling components using a circulation analogue technique. Resultssuggest limited benefits of increased resolution for heatwaves, except inreducing hot biases over mountainous regions. Precipitation extremes aresensitive to resolution, particularly over complex orography, with largertotals and heavier tails of the distribution at higher resolution,particularly in the CORDEX vs. CMIP5 analysis. CMIP5 models underestimateprecipitation extremes, whilst CORDEX simulations overestimate compared toE-OBS, particularly at 12.5 km, but results are sensitive to theobservational dataset used, with the MESAN reanalysis giving higher totalsand heavier tails than E-OBS. Wind extremes are somewhat stronger andheavier tailed at higher resolution, except in coastal regions where largecoastal grid boxes spread strong ocean winds further over land. Thecirculation analogue analysis suggests that differences with resolution forthe HadGEM3-A GCM are primarily due to downscaling effects.

The benefits of increasing resolution in global and regional climate simulations for European climate extremes