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. We present the first forcing interpretation of the futureanthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumesparameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based onanthropogenic aerosol emissions for use in CMIP6 ( Riahi et al. ,  2017 ; Gidden et al. ,  2018 ) . We use the emissions to scale theobservationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and theassociated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day ( Fiedler et al. ,  2017 ; Stevens et al. ,  2017 ) into the future. The resulting scenarios inMACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude andspatial asymmetries for anthropogenic aerosol. All scenarios, except SSP3-70and SSP4-60, show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a rangefrom 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimatethe radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol from high- and low-endscenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with theatmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP translates theCMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing anthropogenic aerosol forcing. With theimplementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both theshortwave instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF) ofanthropogenic aerosol relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapidatmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. TheERF of anthropogenic aerosol for the mid-2090s ranges from −0.15  W m −2 for SSP1-19 to −0.54  W m −2 for SSP3-70, i.e. the mid-2090s ERF is30 %–108 % of the value in the mid-2000s due to differences in the emissionpathway alone. Assuming a stronger Twomey effect changes these ERFs to −0.39 and −0.92  W m −2 , respectively, which are similar toestimates obtained from models with complex aerosol parameterisations. Theyear-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 W m −2 associated withnatural variability highlight the necessity to average over sufficientlylong time periods for estimating ERF; this is in contrast to RF that is typicallywell constrained after simulating just 1 year. The scenario interpretationof MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edgescientific endeavours.

First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect