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Abstract. We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories ofanthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment withinCMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions speciesand 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistenttransitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories usingautomated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissionssource spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range ofend-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios idealfor exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded onthe low end by a 1.9  W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world withend-of-century temperatures well below 2  ∘ C, and on the high end by a 8.5  W m−2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5  ∘ C over pre-industriallevels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differencesbetween forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperatureoutcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6.A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientificcommunity including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.

geoscientific model development

Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century