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. Polar amplification – the phenomenon where external radiativeforcing produces a larger change in surface temperature at high latitudesthan the global average – is a key aspect of anthropogenic climate change,but its causes and consequences are not fully understood. The PolarAmplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to the sixthCoupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016) seeks toimprove our understanding of this phenomenon through a coordinated set ofnumerical model experiments documented here. In particular, PAMIP willaddress the following primary questions: (1) what are the relative roles oflocal sea ice and remote sea surface temperature changes in driving polaramplification? (2) How does the global climate system respond to changes inArctic and Antarctic sea ice? These issues will be addressed with multi-modelsimulations that are forced with different combinations of sea ice and/or seasurface temperatures representing present-day, pre-industrial and futureconditions. The use of three time periods allows the signals of interest tobe diagnosed in multiple ways. Lower-priority tier experiments are proposedto investigate additional aspects and provide further understanding of thephysical processes. These experiments will address the following specificquestions: what role does ocean–atmosphere coupling play in the response tosea ice? How and why does the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice dependon the pattern of sea ice forcing? How and why does the atmospheric responseto Arctic sea ice depend on the model background state? What have been theroles of local sea ice and remote sea surface temperature in polaramplification, and the response to sea ice, over the recent period since1979? How does the response to sea ice evolve on decadal and longertimescales? A key goal of PAMIP is to determine the real-world situation using imperfectclimate models. Although the experiments proposed here form a coordinatedset, we anticipate a large spread across models. However, this spread willbe exploited by seeking “emergent constraints” in which model uncertaintymay be reduced by using an observable quantity that physically explains theintermodel spread. In summary, PAMIP will improve our understanding of thephysical processes that drive polar amplification and its global climateimpacts, thereby reducing the uncertainties in future projections andpredictions of climate change and variability.

The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification