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. In this paper, we present a comparison of model simulations of aerosolprofiles with measurements of the ceilometer network operated by the GermanWeather Service (DWD) over 1 year from September 2015 to August 2016. Theaerosol forecasts are produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere MonitoringService (CAMS) using the aerosol module developed within the Global andregional Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data (GEMS) andMonitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) projects and coupledinto the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts IntegratedForecasting System (ECMWF-IFS). As the model output provides mass mixing ratiosof different types of aerosol, whereas the ceilometers do not, it is necessaryto determine a common physical quantity for the comparison. We have chosenthe attenuated backscatter β∗ for this purpose. The β∗ profiles are calculated from the mass mixing ratios of the modeloutput assuming the inherent aerosol microphysical properties. Comparison ofthe attenuated backscatter averaged between an altitude of 0.2 km (typicaloverlap range of ceilometers) and 1 km in general shows similar annualaverage values. However, the standard deviation of the difference betweenmodel and observation is larger than the average in 8 out of 12 sites. To investigate possible reasons for the differences, we have examined therole of the hygroscopic growth of particles and the particle shape. Ourresults show that using a more recent particle growth model would result in a ∼22  % reduction of particle backscatter for sea salt aerosols,corresponding to a 10 % reduction of the total backscatter signal onaverage. Accounting for nonspherical dust particles in the model would reduceattenuated backscatter of dust particles by ∼30  %. As theconcentration of dust aerosol is in general very low in Germany, asignificant effect on the total backscatter signal is restricted to dustepisodes. In summary, consideration of both effects tends to improve theagreement between model and observations but without leading to a perfectconsistency. In addition, a strong Saharan dust event was investigated to study theagreement of the spatiotemporal distribution of particles. It was found thatthe arrival time of the dust layer and its vertical extent very well agreebetween model and ceilometer measurements for several stations. Thisunderlines the potential of a network of ceilometers to validate thedispersion of aerosol layers.

Evaluation of ECMWF-IFS (version 41R1) operational model forecasts of aerosol transport by using ceilometer network measurements