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. Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able toreplicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Largerensembles can be produced, enabling a probabilistic view of future climatechange. A simple emissions-based climate model, FAIR, is presented, whichcalculates atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and effectiveradiative forcing (ERF) from greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone and otheragents. Model runs are constrained to observed temperature change from 1880to 2016 and produce a range of future projections under the RepresentativeConcentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The constrained estimates ofequilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) andtransient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) are 2.86(2.01 to 4.22) K, 1.53 (1.05 to 2.41) K and 1.40 (0.96 to2.23) K (1000 GtC) −1 (median and 5–95 % credible intervals). These arein good agreement with thelikely Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)range, noting that AR5 estimates were derived from a combination of climatemodels, observations and expert judgement. The ranges of future projectionsof temperature and ranges of estimates of ECS, TCR and TCRE are somewhatsensitive to the prior distributions of ECS∕TCR parameters but lesssensitive to the ERF from a doubling of CO2 or the observationaltemperature dataset used to constrain the ensemble. Taking thesesensitivities into account, there is no evidence to suggest that the medianand credible range of observationally constrained TCR or ECS differ fromclimate model-derived estimates. The range of temperature projections underRCP8.5 for 2081–2100 in the constrained FAIR model ensemble is lower thanthe emissions-based estimate reported in AR5 by half a degree, owing todifferences in forcing assumptions and ECS∕TCR distributions.

FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model