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We develop a prognostic model called Pollen Emissions for\udClimate Models (PECM) for use within regional and global climate models to\udsimulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography,\udvegetation type, and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen\udcount data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average\udtemperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for\uddeciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus), evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae,\udPinaceae), grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4), and ragweed (Ambrosia). This\udregression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen\udphenological dates, and it is used to create a <q>climate-flexible</q>\udphenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen\udemissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in the Regional Climate Model\udversion 4 (RegCM4) over the continental United States by prescribing an\udemission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We\udevaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model using (1) a\udtaxa-specific land cover database, phenology, and emission potential, and (2)\uda plant functional type (PFT) land cover, phenology, and emission potential.\udThe simulated surface pollen concentrations for both simulations are\udevaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic\udsubregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed\udconcentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the\udsimulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover\udrepresentation and the number of observation sites used to create the\udempirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better\udrepresentation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the\udPFT-based model; however, we note that the PFT-based version provides a\uduseful and <q>climate-flexible</q> emissions model for the general representation\udof the pollen phenology over the United States

A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0)