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. The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the globalaverage temperature increase to below 2.0  ∘C above pre-industriallevels, pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5  ∘C ; it is thereforeimportant to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 and2.0  ∘C warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here,climate scenarios from four global circulation models (GCMs) for the baseline(2006–2015), 1.5, and 2.0  ∘C warming scenarios (2106–2115) wereused to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologicalmodel to investigate the impacts of global warming on runoff and terrestrialecosystem water retention (TEWR) across China at a spatial resolution of 0.5 ∘ .This study applied ensemble projections from multiple GCMs to providemore comprehensive and robust results. The trends in annual mean temperature,precipitation, runoff, and TEWR were analyzed at the grid and basin scale.Results showed that median change in runoff ranged from 3.61 to13.86 %, 4.20 to 17.89 %, and median change in TEWR ranged from − 0.45 to 6.71 and − 3.48 to 4.40 % in the 10 main basins inChina under 1.5 and 2.0  ∘C warming scenarios, respectively,across all four GCMs. The interannual variability of runoff increasednotably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannualvariability increased notably from the 1.5 to the 2.0  ∘C warmingscenario. In contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable, the median changein standard deviation (SD) of TEWR ranged from − 10 to 10 % in about90 % grids under 1.5 and 2.0  ∘C warming scenarios, acrossall four GCMs. Both low and high runoff would increase under the twowarming scenarios in most areas across China, with high runoff increasingmore. The risks of low and high runoff events would be higher underthe 2.0 than under the 1.5  ∘C warming scenario in terms of both extent andintensity. Runoff was significantly positively correlated to precipitation,while increase in maximum temperature would generally cause runoff todecrease through increasing evapotranspiration. Likewise, precipitation alsoplayed a dominant role in affecting TEWR. Our results were supported byprevious studies. However, there existed large uncertainties in climatescenarios from different GCMs, which led to large uncertainties in impactassessment. The differences among the four GCMs were larger than differencesbetween the two warming scenarios. Our findings on the spatiotemporalpatterns of climate impacts and their shifts from the 1.5 tothe 2.0  ∘C warming scenario are useful for water resource management underdifferent warming scenarios.

Spatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2 °C warming scenarios across China