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. The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country),plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, whichfeeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Globalempirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has beenindicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net landchange dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30–100  m ) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and netchange dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the resultsof future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net changethat is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5 ∘ gridcells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5 ∘ grid cells are a standard resolution ofEarth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, whichassumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of grossland changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross landchanges were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming,and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization andintensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for land change dynamics that can be applied in Earth systemmodels and integrated assessment models.

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios